Sportswatchmonitor.com Top Free CFB play of the Day Saturday 11-4-17! (Courtesy of Jack Jones)
The Vanderbilt Commodores opened 3-0 this season with a 14-7 home win over Kansas State. Things were going great, but then they stepped into SEC play, and have promptly gone 0-5 since. Now at 3-5 on the season, they are in must-win mode if they want to get to a bowl game. And the way the schedule sets up, they will have a great chance to do just that.
Let's look at this 0-5 run. They had to play Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss and South Carolina. They played Alabama and Georgia at home, meaning their most winnable games were on the road, and they lost all of them. They were competitive against both Florida and South Carolina.
I think the Commodores regroup here and make this a season cut into thirds. The first third was great, the second third was terrible, but now they have the final third to get right and get back to a bowl game. They host Western Kentucky, Kentucky and Missouri in their next three games before going on the road to face Tennessee. They have a real chance to get right here.
Western Kentucky has been one of the most overrated teams in college football. The loss of Jeff Brohm was absolutely massive, especially when you consider how well Purdue has played this year. And the Hilltoppers have been awful all season, failing to live up to expectations from oddsmakers week after week.
Indeed, WKU is 1-6-1 ATS this season. WKU beat FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 31-17 as 35-point favorites in the opener. Their 7-20 loss at Illinois as 6-point favorites looks really poor right now. They lost 22-23 at home to LA Tech as 4-point favorites. They only beat Ball State 33-21 at home, and that's a 2-7 Ball State team that is coming off five straight losses in MAC play since by 52, 28, 49, 41 and 42 points.
WKU then went on the road and beat a UTEP team that is currently 0-8 by a final of 15-14 as 16-point favorites. The only game the Hilltoppers covered came the next week with a 45-14 home win over CHarlotte as 17.5-point favorites. Well, Charlotte is 1-7 this season. Then two weeks ago WKU only beat Old Dominion 35-31 on the road as 6.5-point favorites. Old Dominion is 2-6. And last week they lost at home 28-42 to Florida Atlantic as 6-point dogs.
This is a great matchup for Vanderbilt. Their defense has been good against the pass, allowing just 15 completions, 171 passing yards per game and 6.5 yards per pass attempt. WKU is a one-dimensional passing offense that averages 309 passing yards per game, but just 84 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.
WKU has played the 128th toughest schedule out of 130 teams, while Vanderbilt has played the 45th toughest to this point. WKU is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. SEC opponents. Vanderbilt is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. C-USA foes. The Commodores will take out their frustration from this five-game losing streak and get back in the win column by double-digits here against the overmatched and undermanned Hilltoppers. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.
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